Logic In Investment Strategies
November 15, 2009 by Gnifrus Urquart
Filed under Forex Trading
I’ve been trading stocks and forex all my life. One thing I gradually became aware of during this experience was that the strategies which make the most logical sense typically are the ones which work the best.
There are so many strategies I’ve tried, I have lost count. And there are at least as many which I’ve let go without trying. There are just too many. I found a quick fire way though which helps disregard the strategies which are useless, so you can trial the ones which are worth trialing. Its logic. Look at the logic of your trading strategy and see if there are holes in it. You’ll be amazed by the number of strategies with big logical holes.
Strategies generally make sense. The problem I am talking about is not about making sense, it concerns completeness. When these strategies do not cover all possible scenarios, you can be left in a position where you need to make decisions that are not following the strategy. The amount of judgment you can bring to such forced decisions depends on how close this situation is to others covered by the strategy. In a worse case scenario, it could be a complete guess.
If a trading strategy leaves you guessing, when you make these guesses, you are gambling. A proper trading strategy will leave no contingency for guesswork. It will cover all scenarios taking human error out of the equation. It will be systemised and complete.
The other problem with this is that no matter what happens to your returns from that point, you will never know if it happened because the strategy worked or because of the guess you just made. This also can create problems as it must impact your confidence in the strategy. If your confidence is impacted, this may further cause you to divert from the strategy in other circumstances, exacerbating the problem.
So if someone presents you a trading strategy, go through the logic with a fine tooth comb. See if you can come up with scenarios which may happen in real life, which the strategy deos not cover. If you can think of some, try to get answers for these scenarios before you start trading with real money. Because believe me, if such scenarios exist, as soon as you put money down they will come up. I think 2007 – 2009 taught us all that.
And once you are happy with the logical analysis you have applied, don’t forget to dummy trade for a while too. In dummy trading you will probably find a number of scenarios you never thought of. This gives you the chance of ensuring the strategy deals appropriately with them too, without risking any money. Good luck.
After years of successful trading, Gnifrus Urquart enjoys discussing his favorite investment strategies and offering general investment guidance
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